http://globalpublicmedia.com/interviews/615- audio discussion with Robert Hirsch- 34 minutes
http://www.projectcensored.org/newsflash/The_Hirsch_Report_Proj_Cens.pdf - pdf of report
http://www.acus.org/docs/051007-Hirsch_World_Oil_Production.pdf - 10 page summary
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hirsch_report - wiki on hirsch report
The Hirsch report, the commonly referred to name for the report Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management, was created by request for the US Department of Energy and published in February 2005. It examined the likelihood of the occurrence of peak oil, the necessary mitigating actions, and the likely impacts based on the timeliness of those actions.
This is a long report but the brief summary does a good job of giving an overview. Also, the audio interview is quite informative as well.
Question- Assuming that this report has valid conclusions, when do actions need to begin to be taken to mitigate the effects of the peaking of oil?
What are they most pressing issues, in your opinion and based on this report, for we individually, as a nation, or as a world in the years leading up to and immediately after the peaking of oil production.
What reactions do you have to reading or listening to Robert Hirsch's words?
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6 comments:
Alan Solitar-
It's vital that we start taking action immediately. As Hersh mentions, there are so many variables that can affect the amount of oil available to us that peak oil could appear very soon, or not until decades in the future. We can't wait until we are in crisis to act. Energy conservation is not enough; we need find alternative hydrocarbon which we can burn for energy until we eventually find a more efficient and reliable source of energy to utilize in the future. Th world can't afford to wake up one day and find that there isn't anymore oil laying in the ground. In order to reduce the servere economic impact of peak oil, we need to start prepping now! We can't live for today, we have to think about the future.
Alan Solitar-
Even though peak oil seems imminent, it seems unllikely that our world will take control of the problem and start preparations. This would require social changes(such as the elimination or alteration of suburbs),alterting the economy, and having the government take control of things in each country(this is a frightening thought for many people). Seeing as countries normally focus on current problems, i don't seee such measures as these being taken. This is a really scary thought since that in possibly a decade or less, we could be seeing a worldwide economic crisis worse than that of the Great Depression in the United States during the 1920's and 30's. Our entire way of life could be drastically altered beyond repair. Unfortunately, change may not occur until in the world until a real catastrophe occurs. It makes you wonder how world leaders can ignore such a serious, looming problem.
I think that one of the most pressing and interesting issues that Hirsch brings up in the interview is the issue of education. People simply don't understand energy--how it works, how it is conserved, and why peak oil is such a major threat. If people don't understand the threat, they wont acknowledge the risks associated with it, and wont feel compelled to act to prevent or mitigate it.
When peak oil is reached (or rather, 20 years prior to that), the world will have to enter what Hirsch refers to as a "crash program." Crash programs will require rapid training of millions of people to enter into new fields of industry to significantly alter the nation's consumption and economic priorities. The success of these programs lies largely in the efforts of the people; if the people don't understand the situation, they will have no incentive to respond to the crash programs, which will end up failing. This concept is really unsettling because it seems as though we have already missed the boat on implementing comfortable crash programs, so the idea that even now, when we are nearly in a global economic crisis, people will not be compelled enough to try to save the economy simply because they don't know any better is really frustruating.
As Alan said, action needs to be taken immediately , if not already. We don't have time to waste on ignorance; people need to be informed and need to understand the importance of energy conservation and redirection. If we plan to preserve the global economy and human civilization in general, I think the place to start is with the education of the people.
Although I understand the urgency of this situation, I think that Hirsh is not thinking outside the box as much as one should. Of course the issue of peak oil is huge and action must be taken sooner rather than later. However, the ways to mitigate the problem that he suggests are not ideal. I don't understand how a world that can do so many things - from creating nuclear weapons to harvesting wind, solar and water power - needs to substitute their fuel with coal. This is one of the suggestions Hirsh makes in mitigating the issue. I don't understand why the world has to try to dig themselves out of one hole (running out of oil), while digging themselves deeper into another (pollution.) Perhaps I am too much of an optimist and I believe in the world's ability to get it together and truly advance in non-renewable sources. Even so, the world and the people that inhabit it should not have to solely think of their economic interests.
Also, Hirsh talks about how the world and the U.S. in particular does not have a great track record for "risk management." Meaning, the U.S. does not act on a problem until it is truly evident. He uses the example of World War 2, and how the U.S. did not react until Pearl Harbor. However, what about the Iraq War? Some people who believe we should be in the war think that we are there to prevent certain problems - one of them being a safe haven for terrorists. The U.S. is essentially thinking ahead and acting on something so that they will not have to face this problem in the future ahead. The issue of terrorists will perhaps never go away, but in staying in Iraq the U.S. believes they are mitigating a problem. Whether or not I agree with this is not the point. The point is that everyone bashes the U.S. for being procrastinators, but once they act on a threat that is not obvious to the people of the U.S., we partially bash them for that too.
I just finished listening to the clip right after watching an Obama Clinton debate and couldn't help but notice resemblances between the actions that the democratic candidates want to take to fight global warming and the actions that are needed to mitigate the oil peak crisis. Hersh at one point starts talking about how global warming should be set aside and oil peak should be dealt with as a priority. I would like to disagree with that and state that they are issues that are interconnected and that fixing one issue will help solve the other, I mean, I am no expert on any of the issues but to what I have heard they seem to be very similar in ways to help end the problem.
Hersh talks about the problem of people not being educated on the matter, I agree that that is a big issue. I can take myself as an example I had never heard of oil peak until I saw the movie "escape from suburbia" which is an indicator that the Department of Education needs to incorporate these global problems in the classroom, to promote awareness at a young age. Global warming though these days seems to be more of a "hot topic" than oil peak, and people seem to be more willing to do more about it. I feel that people should then take global warming and present oil peak as an element linked to it, to try to get people to think more about the oil peak crisis because for now there is not much talk about it in the media.
Hirsch, in my opinion, sems to feel that we as a notion do not act until absolutly necessary. This is probalby an overexaggeration of the truth. While we do clearly wait a bit too long to act on certain things- like the peaking of oil perhaps, and the issue of global warming which has been accepted among some peopl for a few decades by now, it is true that we act in advance of other issues, as Caroline points out with our attempts to control the situation in Iraq.
It is pleasant to see as Julien noted that some politicians are talking about oil issues. Until it gets talked about among a large number of people, we will probably not see effective action taken. Now if only McCain would address the issue as well.
I appreciate the comments about getting this information out to younger people and how many of us are totally unaware of these issues- part of my insiration to introduce this topic at the high school level is exactly for the reason that until we can grasp what the issues are- we will be unable to develop sound strategies for moving beyond them.
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